Backlash against solar in Germany?

Germany will break all records this year with a newly installed photovoltaic capacity twice as high as in 2009, which was itself a full 50 percent above the previous record held by Spain in 2008 – the one that led the Spanish market to crash when jittery politicians slashed the program in haste. How will German politicians respond?

The short answer: with a lot more prudence than readers in the UK or the US might expect, where roller coaster rides in policies to support renewables are nothing new. The US is notorious for being a stop-and-go market, and this year the UK also discussed throwing out its feed-in tariffs only six months after implementing them (though it has decided to retain them up to the scheduled review). One of the best examples of how the Anglo world thinks politics in Germany must be the same as in their part of the world is what British environmentalist journalist wrote in the Guardian in March:

• A week ago the German government decided to reduce sharply the tariff it pays for solar PV, on the grounds that it is a waste of money. Just as the Germans have begun to abandon their monumental mistake, we are about to repeat it.

In his article, Monbiot was campaigning against the implementation of feed-in tariffs in the UK, but, embarrassingly for him, Germany at no point decided that PV is "a waste of money" and to "abandon their monumental mistake," as the current boom clearly shows.

Part of the answer to the question of how German politicians will respond to the boom this year lies in the public's reaction. With the retail rate now clearly rising next year, and with the price hike attributed largely to renewables, one might expect a public backlash, but Germany's Environmental Agency published the results of a poll last week, which found that 85 percent of Germans surveyed agree that "we need to consistently switch to renewables."

At the same time, there is little opposition to a change in Germany's solar policy next year. Some members of the governing CDU party would like to have a ceiling of around three gigawatts (just short of the 3.9 gigawatts installed last year and far short of the expected a gigawatts this year), but even BSW-Solar, the German Solar Industry Association, now agrees that a ceiling might be appropriate, though they would put it at five gigawatts. Politically, there is also no opposition to further reductions. The SPD and Greens have also now proposed further reducing feed-in tariffs by 4.0 to 4.5 percent in April 2011 (and they will automatically be reduced by 13 percent effective January 1).

It looks a lot more like a productive discussion among reasonable adults than a knee-jerk backlash, but the English-speaking world may nonetheless report these changes as being emotionally charged because they cannot imagine a political system that works any other way. (cm)